As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions. We concentrate only on what we know and understand therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. The coronavirus pandemic, however, is not a Black Swan for Taleb, who believes that there was sufficient historical precedent to foresee the next pandemic.
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